Lingfield All Weather Draw Bias

Following on from the Kempton piece earlier in the week – which, incidentally, highlighted a £23.26 straight forecast tonight with its only two selections – below is the analysis for Lingfield Park’s all weather sprint trips.

The management summary is that there is nothing like so much to go to war with, but still there are some interesting aspects to note.

[Again, my thanks to David Peat of www.horseprofiles.co.uk for allowing me to share this.]

Lingfield 5f races

Stall Bets Wins WinStrike SP_PL Places PlaceStrike
1 309 26 8% -116.42 95 31%
2 308 41 13% -26.68 115 37%
3 304 43 14% -67.87 105 35%
4 315 44 14% 34.06 108 34%
5 302 49 16% 3.00 110 36%
6 291 31 11% -106.54 93 32%
7 267 29 11% -65.12 80 30%
8 248 22 9% -136.50 76 31%
9 214 16 7% -63.00 56 26%
10 177 23 13% -5.16 49 28%

It would seem that the place to be here is between Stalls 2 and 5. Stall 1 has a very poor
strike rate. The one anomaly in this is Stall 10 which has a small loss and a decent strike
rate. Compare this to Stalls 6 to 9 which have a huge loss and a poor strike rate.
Lingfield 5f – 1 to 7 runners

Stall Bets Wins WinStrike SP_PL Places PlaceStrike
1 75 11 15% -3.67 21 28%
2 74 15 20% 9.83 26 35%
3 78 17 22% -17.33 28 36%
4 79 11 14% -46.59 23 29%
5 69 9 13% -28.80 24 35%
6 55 7 13% -10.75 14 25%
7 39 7 18% -14.30 14 36%

The draw stats here are turned on their head with the bottom three stalls having the best of
the returns. Stall1 here shows only a small loss.

Lingfield 5f – 1 to 9 runners

Stall Bets Wins WinStrike SP_PL Places PlaceStrike
1 195 16 8% -104.67 61 31%
2 194 30 15% 20.07 76 39%
3 190 28 15% -58.37 69 36%
4 201 31 15% 56.98 75 37%
5 188 37 20% 10.67 70 37%
6 177 21 12% -45.25 53 30%
7 153 22 14% -4.62 51 33%
8 134 10 7% -84.75 34 25%
9 100 6 6% -67.50 35 35%
10 63 9 14% 9.46 18 29%

Now we have increased the field size again Stall one is not the place to be, whilst Stalls 2 to 5
show a decent profit. Again it would not matter if you were drawn high as Stall 10 once
again shows has a decent strike rate and shows a profit.

Now we have a look at whether there is any difference between handicaps and non
handicaps

Lingfield 5f – Handicaps

Stall Bets Wins WinStrike SP_PL Places PlaceStrike
1 152 11 7% -84.50 45 30%
2 147 15 10% -12.67 50 34%
3 145 20 14% -13.41 52 36%
4 153 20 13% 12.80 56 37%
5 142 25 18% 41.71 52 37%
6 145 17 12% -31.25 43 30%
7 137 11 8% -84.84 42 31%
8 130 14 11% -53.42 39 30%
9 119 8 7% -56.75 27 23%
10 99 14 14% 9.51 33 33%

Handicaps show a similar pattern as we have seen above.

Lingfield 5f – Non Handicaps

Stall Bets Wins WinStrike SP_PL Places PlaceStrike
1 157 15 10% -31.92 50 32%
2 161 26 16% -14.01 65 40%
3 159 23 14% -54.46 53 33%
4 162 24 15% 21.26 52 32%
5 160 24 15% -38.71 58 36%
6 146 14 10% -75.29 50 34%
7 130 18 14% 19.72 38 29%
8 118 8 7% -83.08 37 31%
9 95 8 8% -6.25 29 31%
10 78 9 12% -14.67 16 21%

Not that much to go on here except that the middle stalls tend to do slightly better.

Lingfield 5f – Class 4, 5 and 6

Stall Bets Wins WinStrike SP_PL Places PlaceStrike
1 259 22 8% -84.17 77 30%
2 258 33 13% -42.68 97 38%
3 254 38 15% -34.50 87 34%
4 265 39 15% 54.23 97 37%
5 252 45 18% 39.37 96 38%
6 243 26 11% -105.04 73 30%
7 222 25 11% -69.12 65 29%
8 204 15 7% -137.50 60 29%
9 173 10 6% -61.50 46 27%
10 141 20 14% 15.84 42 30%

Two stalls stand out as you can see – by blindly backing Stalls 4 and 5 would have led to a 93
point profit. Again Stall 10 also shows a profit.

Lingfield 5f – Class 1, 2 and 3

Stall Bets Wins WinStrike SP_PL Places PlaceStrike
1 32 4 13% -14.25 13 41%
2 32 5 16% 12.50 12 38%
3 33 3 9% -24.87 12 36%
4 33 4 12% -9.17 8 24%
5 33 2 6% -24.92 7 21%
6 30 4 13% 1.50 11 37%
7 29 1 3% -23.50 9 31%
8 27 4 15% -1.00 9 33%
9 25 4 16% -0.50 7 28%
10 22 2 9% -13.00 5 23%

Not a lot to go here with only Stall 2 showing any signs of a bias.

Lingfield 6f races

Stall Bets Wins WinStrike SP_PL Places PlaceStrike
1 602 52 9% -273.37 167 28%
2 603 79 13% -131.24 197 33%
3 594 74 12% -214.75 184 31%
4 598 67 11% -135.61 189 32%
5 601 52 9% -258.99 170 28%
6 582 69 12% -70.98 169 29%
7 573 58 10% -184.28 166 29%
8 538 54 10% -122.92 154 29%
9 492 39 8% -172.83 125 25%
10 423 41 10% -105.04 107 25%
11 369 25 7% -138.65 80 22%
12 305 21 7% -69.37 78 26%
13 64 4 6% -41.62 13 20%
14 52 3 6% -36.83 7 13%

There would seem to be no draw bias at this distance, though low to middle win more often (not profitable to follow per se).

Lingfield 6f – 1 to 7 runners

Stall Bets Wins WinStrike SP_PL Places PlaceStrike
1 85 9 11% -50.57 21 25%
2 83 19 23% -9.38 35 42%
3 85 20 24% 5.27 27 32%
4 83 12 14% -18.70 27 33%
5 79 17 22% 0.96 27 34%
6 62 7 11% -40.27 15 24%
7 44 9 20% -5.20 16 36%

Again nothing much to go on here.

Lingfield 6f – 1 to 9 runners

Stall Bets Wins WinStrike SP_PL Places PlaceStrike
1 203 16 8% -140.24 66 33%
2 199 37 19% 25.51 77 39%
3 195 37 19% -17.63 68 35%
4 198 33 17% 21.86 76 38%
5 198 29 15% -29.46 67 34%
6 178 22 12% -57.64 61 34%
7 163 19 12% -73.66 54 33%
8 136 11 8% -17.42 38 28%
9 88 7 8% -61.39 28 32%
10 28 4 14% -12.92 6 21%

Two stalls have shown a profit with this number of runners but it hardly constitutes a pattern.

Lingfield 6f – 1 to 12 runners

Stall Bets Wins WinStrike SP_PL Places PlaceStrike
1 406 38 9% -181.45 118 29%
2 404 63 16% -48.49 140 35%
3 397 53 13% -137.79 130 33%
4 405 52 13% -69.01 141 35%
5 403 42 10% -129.99 125 31%
6 384 40 10% -129.23 122 32%
7 374 43 11% -104.28 118 32%
8 341 34 10% -64.41 96 28%
9 293 26 9% -118.33 77 26%
10 224 21 9% -75.27 62 28%
11 170 16 9% -8.50 40 24%
12 105 7 7% -40.25 34 32%

Nothing much of any interest here again alas.

As there is no pattern there seems little point in looking at Hnadicaps/Non Handicaps and
Class.

Comments

12 Responses to “Lingfield All Weather Draw Bias”
  1. Noxious says:

    Excellent stuff. Not a massive jumps fan but i do love all weather racing! Looking forward to using these stats to my advantage and also the stats and trends for the other AW Tracks.

    Regards

  2. tim clarke says:

    Hi

    using the draw stats on 6f at Lingfield

    drawn 2 to 10
    fav any price
    class 2 to 6
    7 year old max
    run from june to march ( April and May very poor possibly due to trainers running horses before going to turf?)

    shown a profit to sp for the last seven years with a s/r 41.18%

    • Matt Bisogno says:

      Hi Tim

      Interesting take – I know the 1 box seems cursed, and the car park draws are obviously also hard to win with.

      There’s reasonable logic in your statement about the ‘transitional months’ too.

      And I’m loving the very healthy strike rate. There must be a lot of action too, I’m guessing.

      Matt

    • ken griffiths says:

      Hi Tim,
      very interesting,am I right in saying that on that basis the selection in the 1.50 at lingfield today would have been sabatini which won at 11/4 ?

      regards,

      Ken

    • Paddy says:

      Hi Tim,
      what points profit per year did your system show? Also, is your analysis based on WIN bets or EACH/WAY?
      Thanks again for your contribution.

      Have you any other similarly successful systems?

      • tim clarke says:

        Hi Paddy,

        The Lingfield 6F System is win only

        2003 +8.51
        2004 +8.62
        2005 -1.36
        2006 +6.41
        2007 +22.07
        2008 +32.92
        2009 to date +10.02

        all these results are at SP , might not seem a lot but using a non aggressive staking plan like level percentage starting with a £100 bank and betting 10% each time the £100 bank would now be £3868.80, better return than the bank and certainly more fun

  3. Paddy says:

    Hi Matt,
    do you think your analysis yields a ‘system’ as such, or is the only 2 systems of note of all 3 All Weather tracks mentioned so far the 2 Kempton draw bias systems?….ie: the one you mentioned and Tim Clark’s?

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