Trainers In Form – early February 2010

Profitable Trainer Statistics, by Connor Gallagher

Paul Nicholls has reigned supreme in the trainers’ championship over the past few years, but the official figures suggest we should be looking towards the less publicised yards when it comes to sourcing a profit from trainer stats.

I don’t know about you, but I’m of the opinion that global warming has been rendered well and truly ridiculous over the past month or so. My other half for one certainly got the winter wonderland she’d been craving, although I’m not so sure the trainers are feeling so great about the state of the weather at the moment.

Things are only very slowly starting to get back to normal, with many struggling to get sufficient amounts of work into their horses to do themselves justice. This doesn’t seem to apply to the following three trainers though…

V R A Dartnall has sent out three winners from nine runners over the past fortnight, for a strike rate of 33.3%. He’s also sent out an additional placed horse, indicating that he certainly isn’t struggling at the moment. The area to focus on here is his runners in non-handicap novice events. He’s sent out four runners, of which two have won at odds of 5-4 and 6-4, with another horse placed at 16-1. He also tends to do particularly well with staying chasers. Over 3m+ (24f) his runners have recent form figures of 141, with one of those winners at huge 16-1!

A M Hales is also in fine form right now. He’s sent out three winners (17-2, 9-2 and 16-1) and five placed horses from just ten runners lately. His horses seem to do better when there’s some give in the ground too. Concentrating on his runners only when the ground is soft or heavy would have generated a 25pts level stake profit in the last fortnight alone.

C L Tizzard has had a number of decent horses over the years, and has had his string in fine fettle of late. He’s sent out 17 horses and 8 have placed, with 5 winners too. Focus on his runners at shorter to middle distances. Hey Big Spender ran well at Cheltenham over the weekend, but he looks like a top-class handicapper in the making, and the rest of his winners have come at distances of up to and including 2m4f. Six of his eleven runners at such distances have won or placed, at prices of up to 11-1.

The Cheltenham Festival is well and truly on the horizon now, and I’ll be doing my best to unearth some antepost value between now and march. Saturday saw a number of hotpots fail to fire, with Tidal Bay returning to form to land the Cleeve hurdle in style, and Taranis coming back from over two years of the track to make mincemeat of Carruthers.

What interested me about Tidal Bay was the way he travelled so well throughout the race. He was hampered twice if you look closely, and yet never really struggled to peg back the leaders when asked to so. His trainer has already stated how he’ll be a 10lb better horse on quicker ground, and to be honest he’s a big danger to Big Bucks in my eyes.

Horse Racing Bulletin readers were in the money when The Sawyer (advised 8-1) came home to win a second Betfair Trophy for us ahead of Private Be. It was a plan executed to perfection by trainer Bob Buckler, albeit it was great to see 13 year-old Mister McGoldrick once again give his running back in 3rd place.

Connor Gallagher is a professional horse racing bettor and stats analyst. If you’d like to get more tips and advice like this direct to your inbox, then why not sign-up to Connor’s weekly e-letter by going to: http://www.horseracingbulletin.com

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