Wolverhampton All Weather Draw Bias

Concluding the quartet of all-weather sprint draw analyses is Wolverhampton, hereafter known as Wolves to save my aching digits.

Although not too much to get excited about overall, there is one angle into 5f non-handicaps which appears to be well worth keeping on the right side of…

Again, thanks go to David Peat for allowing me to reproduce his research.

Wolves 5f races

Stall Bets Wins WinStrike SP_PL Places PlaceStrike
1 477 71 15% -54.15 183 38%
2 475 60 13% -47.14 144 30%
3 470 62 13% -37.32 164 35%
4 463 43 9% -165.18 127 27%
5 460 52 11% -74.32 140 30%
6 445 46 10% -56.14 131 29%
7 425 42 10% -96.93 113 27%
8 405 27 7% -159.57 100 25%
9 380 37 10% -85.99 98 26%
10 341 23 7% -145.12 74 22%
11 278 16 6% -162.11 52 19%
12 234 7 3% -178.84 36 15%
13 182 12 7% -79.25 33 18%

I can remember when the draw bias at Wolverhampton was solely in favour of those drawn
low. However as we can see now although low still have a strike rate advantage there are no
longer any profits to be had.

Wolves 5f – 1 to 7 runners

Stall Bets Wins WinStrike SP_PL Places PlaceStrike
1 82 17 21% -4.75 30 37%
2 79 15 19% -23.04 22 28%
3 76 15 20% -18.86 32 42%
4 75 9 12% -29.12 20 27%
5 70 11 16% -5.21 22 31%
6 58 7 12% -7.02 18 31%
7 45 10 22% 9.16 11 24%
8 15 2 13% -7.25 4 27%
9 2 0 0% -2.00 0 0%
10 1 0 0% -1.00 0 0%

We can see that the bottom three stalls have a good strike rate but produce no profit, whilst
bizarrely Stall 7 has a 22% strike rate and shows a profit of over 9 points.

Wolves 5f – 1 to 9 runners

Stall Bets Wins WinStrike SP_PL Places PlaceStrike
1 159 27 17% -29.87 62 39%
2 154 26 17% -36.70 52 34%
3 153 23 15% -28.40 59 39%
4 149 16 11% -54.12 48 32%
5 144 18 13% -47.58 47 33%
6 134 15 11% -40.02 46 34%
7 118 23 19% 44.07 42 36%
8 85 4 5% -68.87 18 21%
9 64 11 17% -14.87 20 31%
10 33 4 12% -4.62 8 24%
11 13 2 15% -6.70 6 46%
12 5 0 0% -5.00 0 0%
13 1 0 0% -1.00 0 0%

Stalls 1 to 3 again have a good strike rate and Stall 7 produces a huge profit here maybe this
is why we see a system come on the market advising people to back Stall 7!

[This refers to the truly abominable Lucky 7even manual that was released in November 2009 to widespread disgust..!]

Wolves 5f – 1 to 13 runners

Stall Bets Wins WinStrike SP_PL Places PlaceStrike
1 290 45 16% -37.91 110 38%
2 289 40 14% -96.38 91 31%
3 287 45 16% -61.32 106 37%
4 283 25 9% -141.18 85 30%
5 275 31 11% -75.45 82 30%
6 262 29 11% -57.27 83 32%
7 245 35 14% 19.57 77 31%
8 218 15 7% -86.72 60 28%
9 195 19 10% -100.74 55 28%
10 157 14 9% -46.87 36 23%
11 97 6 6% -46.85 24 25%
12 56 4 7% -14.75 11 20%
13 32 1 3% -21.00 8 25%

Once again Stall 7 is profitable but the strike is down and again the bottom three stalls have
the best strike rate.

Now we have a look at whether there is any difference between handicaps and non
handicaps.

Wolves 5f – Handicaps

Stall Bets Wins WinStrike SP_PL Places PlaceStrike
1 253 31 12% -87.51 94 37%
2 251 36 14% 1.41 86 34%
3 244 29 12% -58.59 79 32%
4 246 24 10% -74.65 74 30%
5 243 29 12% -43.11 73 30%
6 238 30 13% 36.00 76 32%
7 231 21 9% -37.00 62 27%
8 223 13 6% -108.25 55 25%
9 207 19 9% -51.49 56 27%
10 182 12 7% -70.00 34 19%
11 154 9 6% -61.92 28 18%
12 121 2 2% -108.75 17 14%
13 99 6 6% -40.50 13 13%

In handicaps the bottom 6 stalls would seem the place to be with Stall 7 and above only
having single figure strike rates.

Wolves 5f – Non Handicaps

Stall Bets Wins WinStrike SP_PL Places PlaceStrike
1 224 40 18% 33.36 89 40%
2 224 24 11% -48.55 58 26%
3 226 33 15% 21.27 85 38%
4 217 19 9% -90.53 53 24%
5 217 23 11% -31.21 67 31%
6 207 16 8% -92.14 55 27%
7 194 21 11% -59.93 51 26%
8 182 14 8% -51.32 45 25%
9 173 18 10% -34.50 42 24%
10 159 11 7% -75.12 40 25%
11 124 7 6% -100.19 24 19%
12 113 5 4% -70.09 19 17%
13 83 6 7% -38.75 20 24%

Stalls 1 to 3 here show a profit but the profit from Stall 3 is skewed by a 66-1 winner.

If we look at Stall 1 the only way I could improve profit and strike rate was to look at the
horses position last time out and the area to concentrate on was FIRST to TENTH here are
the new figures.

Bets Wins WinStrike SP_PL Places PlaceStrike
165 36 21.82% 71.98 76 46.06%

I did now look at what track these winners came from on their last run at what is bizarre that
if we only take horses that had run at one of the four AW tracks the figures improve to:

Bets Wins WinStrike SP_PL Places PlaceStrike
114 28 24.56% 86.10 56 49.12%

However there were two long losing runs – one of 24 and the other of 18 – so consider yourself warned.

Wolves – Class 4, 5 and 6

Stall Bets Wins WinStrike SP_PL Places PlaceStrike
1 468 71 15% -45.15 178 38%
2 466 58 12% -61.14 141 30%
3 461 61 13% -32.65 160 35%
4 453 42 9% -157.09 123 27%
5 450 49 11% -93.32 135 30%
6 435 45 10% -49.39 128 29%
7 417 41 10% -93.43 112 27%
8 396 27 7% -150.57 99 25%
9 373 36 10% -95.99 96 26%
10 333 23 7% -137.12 74 22%
11 274 16 6% -158.11 52 19%
12 230 7 3% -174.84 36 16%
13 178 12 7% -75.25 33 19%

There would appear to be no draw bias in this class of racing.

Wolves 5f – Class 1, 2 and 3

Stall Bets Wins WinStrike SP_PL Places PlaceStrike
1 9 0 0% -9.00 5 56%
2 9 2 22% 14.00 3 33%
3 9 1 11% -4.67 4 44%
4 10 1 10% -8.09 4 40%
5 10 3 30% 19.00 5 50%
6 10 1 10% -6.75 3 30%
7 8 1 13% -3.50 1 13%
8 9 0 0% -9.00 1 11%
9 7 1 14% 10.00 2 29%
10 8 0 0% -8.00 0 0%
11 4 0 0% -4.00 0 0%
12 4 0 0% -4.00 0 0%
13 4 0 0% -4.00 0 0%

Very few races to go here but on the limited evidence I would prefer a horse that was drawn
low.

Wolves 6f races

Stall Bets Wins WinStrike SP_PL Places PlaceStrike
1 696 74 11% -186.82 187 27%
2 685 70 10% -164.48 183 27%
3 696 71 10% -79.82 203 29%
4 690 87 13% 42.10 229 33%
5 689 69 10% -224.71 212 31%
6 674 68 10% -104.51 175 26%
7 662 49 7% -240.35 179 27%
8 631 62 10% -111.34 179 28%
9 588 54 9% -147.00 151 26%
10 529 39 7% -150.73 135 26%
11 464 28 6% -270.25 73 16%
12 423 33 8% 68.63 95 22%
13 351 22 6% -31.00 79 23%

Although two stalls show a profit there is no draw bias as far as I can see.

Wolves 6f – 1 to 7 runners

Stall Bets Wins WinStrike SP_PL Places PlaceStrike
1 71 7 10% -55.39 17 24%
2 66 13 20% -15.78 20 30%
3 71 16 23% 30.82 27 38%
4 71 12 17% 4.78 27 38%
5 65 13 20% 13.41 20 31%
6 59 7 12% -4.01 15 25%
7 39 6 15% -2.75 10 26%
8 14 3 21% -0.12 5 36%
9 2 0 0% -2.00 0 0%
13 1 1 100% 1.25 1 100%

Although overall there was no draw bias in small fields in would seem that being drawn away
from Stalls 1 and 2 is an advantage (especially Stall 1). However although Stalls 1 to 3 show
a profit they have not combined in the last three years.

Wolves 6f – 1 to 9 runners

Stall Bets Wins WinStrike SP_PL Places PlaceStrike
1 174 20 11% -91.90 59 34%
2 167 19 11% -82.37 48 29%
3 174 29 17% 37.67 62 36%
4 176 25 14% -24.69 64 36%
5 168 26 15% -29.85 59 35%
6 158 19 12% -35.51 45 28%
7 144 18 13% -21.85 49 34%
8 118 18 15% -9.27 52 44%
9 75 11 15% -16.29 24 32%
10 23 2 9% 5.38 7 30%
11 3 0 0% -3.00 1 33%
12 3 0 0% -3.00 0 0%
13 3 1 33% -0.75 1 33%

Whatever draw bias that existed in the small field races has now disappeared.

Wolves 6f – 1 to 11 runners

Stall Bets Wins WinStrike SP_PL Places PlaceStrike
1 334 38 11% -149.67 103 31%
2 332 36 11% -126.24 98 30%
3 334 41 12% -32.70 107 32%
4 335 41 12% -68.44 117 35%
5 324 40 12% -70.47 106 33%
6 317 38 12% 17.99 95 30%
7 304 31 10% -116.73 91 30%
8 277 36 13% 7.75 99 36%
9 234 28 12% -20.54 67 29%
10 180 15 8% -40.89 54 30%
11 110 5 5% -81.50 17 15%
12 74 7 9% 72.00 16 22%
13 40 3 8% -28.25 15 38%

Nothing of any interest here again…

I had a quick look at handicaps and non handicaps and Class and there was nothing to get
excited about as no draw bias existed.

So there you have it. Look out for trap one over 5f in non-handicaps, especially where the horse finished in the first ten at an all weather track last time.

Matt

Comments

8 Responses to “Wolverhampton All Weather Draw Bias”
  1. DAVID DICKINSON says:

    hi matt
    had been using this draw bias for a few months with some moderate success but recently the advantage to the low stalls seems to have petered out.
    cheers
    david

  2. Paddy says:

    Would it be fair to say we have no qualifiers on 11th December in either of the 2 5F races at Wolverhampton?

  3. Paddy says:

    Matt,
    would you advise to place WIN or WIN and PLACE market bets with this system?

    • Matt Bisogno says:

      Hi Paddy

      All the data points to WIN only. That isn’t to say that betting place won’t serve you well. Rather, I don’t have specific figures for that. [I know they place on average 40% of the time, but I don’t know whether they pay better than 6/4 the place on average, which they’d need to in order to turn a profit.]

      Matt

  4. Paddy says:

    Had a 7.8 BSP winner in the 4:30 today. Happy Days. Fair play Matt

  5. Eamon Roberts says:

    Go all-weather racing for free…at Wolverhampton.

    If anyone lives near Wolverhampton race course, Nick Pullen over at Horse Racing Focus posted the following:

    ‘You can go all weather racing for free at Wolverhampton all this month.
    The kind folk down there are giving free admission to the Grandstand
    enclosure at all their meetings throughout January.

    If you’re within the catchment area (and maybe even if you’re not) it’s a
    great opportunity to have a day at the races. And if you’ve never sampled
    all weather racing before then it’s a good chance to do so without having
    to put your hand in your pocket for the admission price.

    If you want a free ticket then you will have to book it. You can call the
    course on 01902 390000. You can text RACE to 60070. Or you can email:
    info@wolverhampton-racecourse.co.uk.’

    If you haven’t heard about this before it is a free newsletter from a fellow racing enthusiast, who has some interesting views and opinions that he throws out there to challenge, accept or inform. It can be found at: http://www.HorseRacingFocus.co.uk.

    I’m a bit too far away in London to travel up but if any of you do live nearby or decide to take advantage, then enjoy!

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