2024 Cheltenham Festival Trends: DAY ONE (Tues 12th March 2024)
Each day of the 2024 Cheltenham Festival our horse racing trends experts will give you all the quick-fire positive and negative stats for EVERY race. Apply these to the final cards and you will build up a picture and a profile of which horses have historically done the best in recent renewals.
We hope they help narrow down the fields and also help pin-point plenty of winners at the 2023 Cheltenham Festival for you!
The 'day one' feature is the Grade One Unibet Champion Hurdle - a race in which 34 of the last 40 winners won last time out. While the Irish or Nicky Henderson have won 21 of the last 25 renewals between them.
You can also see the all the other daily Cheltenham trends 2024 below.
Cheltenham Day One Trends 2024
Cheltenham Day Two Trends 2024
Cheltenham Day Three Trends 2024
Cheltenham Day Four Trends 2024
Cheltenham Festival Trends 2024
Tuesday 12th March 2024 (Old Course)
1.30 - Sky Bet Supreme Novices' Hurdle (Grade 1) 2m 87y ITV
2023 Winner: Marine Nationale
Trainer – Barry Connell
Jockey – Michael O’Sullivan
UK/Irish: Irish
Pluses…..
- 24 of the last 27 winners won their last race
- 14 of the last 20 winners had raced in at least 4 hurdles races before
- 12 of the last 14 winners came from the first 4 in the market
- 11 of the last 12 winners had won a graded Novice Hurdle before
- 21 of the last 29 winners ran in the last 45 days
- Irish-trained horses have won 18 of the last 32 runnings
- 5 & 6 year-olds have the best record – winning 17 of the last 19 runnings
- Willie Mullins has won the race 7 times in total and for 5 of the last 11 years
- 8 of the last 11 winners were either (5) Mullins or (3) Henderson-trained
- 26 of the last 29 winners had raced that same calendar year
- Owner Rich Ricci & trainer Willie Mullins have won 3 of the last 11 runnings
- 6 of the last 10 winners had been rated 153 or more
- 10 of the last 11 winners returned a single-figure price
- 10 of the last 15 winners were previous bumper winners
- 4 winning favourites in the last 10 runnings (40%)
Negatives…..
- Horses that FAILED to win last time out before coming here are just 3 from the last 27. In other words, look for horses that won last time out!
- Since 1992 all horses (40) wearing head-gear have been beaten
- We’ve seen just two ex-flat horses win since 2008
- Just 4 of the last 21 winners came here unbeaten
- Just 1 of the last 21 winners aged 7 or older
- Just 2 outright winning favourites in the last 19 runnings
- 4 year-olds are 0-15 since 2000
- Betfair Hurdle winners are 0-from-8 in the last decade
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2.10 – My Pension Expert Arkle Novices' Chase (Grade 1) 1m 7f 199y ITV
2023 Winner: EL FABIOLO (11/10 fav)
Trainer – Willie Mullins
Jockey – Paul Townend
UK/Irish: Irish
Pluses….
- 14 of the last 19 winners had won (or been placed) at Cheltenham before
- 18 of the last 24 winners had won a Grade 1 or 2 chase before
- The last 14 winners won last time out (plus 18 of the last 22)
- 22 of the last 24 winners returned 9/1 or shorter
- 14 of the last 18 winners had won at least twice over fences before
- 15 of the last 17 winners were aged 6 or 7 years-old
- 15 of the last 21 winners had run 3 or 4 times over fences
- 14 of the last 20 winners had run at the previous year’s Cheltenham Festival
- 9 of the last 12 winners were unbeaten over fences
- Nicky Henderson has won the race 7 times
- Willie Mullins has won 5 of the last 9 runnings (all French-bred)
- 9 of the last 12 winners trained by Willie Mullins (5) or Nicky Henderson (4)
- 9 of the last 12 favourites have won
- 7 winning favourites in the last 10 runnings (70%)
Negatives…..
- Only 2 of the last 37 winners failed to win or finish second last time out
- Just 3 of the last 33 winners started 11/1 or bigger in the betting
- Only 4 of the last 32 winners were older than 7 years-old
- The last horse aged 9 (or older) to win was in 1988
- Ex-flat horses have a poor record
- Only 1 winner since 2000 won with headgear
- 5 year-olds are 0-16 in the last 13 years
- Shishkin (2021), Douvan (2016) and Altior (2017) were the first Supreme Hurdle winners (prev season) that have followed-up in this race since 1965
- Trainer Paul Nicholls has had 12 unplaced from his last 13 runners
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2.50 - Ultima Handicap Chase (Grade 3) 3m 1f ITV
2023 Winner: CORACH RAMBLER
Trainer – Lucinda Russell
Jockey – Derek Fox
UK/Irish: UK
Pluses….
- 18 of the last 24 winners were officially rated 143 or less
- 16 of the last 23 came from the top 4 in the betting
- 19 of the last 23 winners returned 11/1 or shorter
- 17 of the last 23 were novices or second season chasers
- 9 of the last 16 winners were rated between 142-146 (7 between 142-145)
- Horses rated 140+ have won 15 of the last 23 runnings
- 9 of the last 21 won last time out
- Horses that have run well in the race before have a good record
- 10 of the last 12 winners wore headgear
- 10 of the last 14 winners had run at Cheltenham that season
- Jonjo O’Neill, Lucinda Russell, Alan King, Nicky Henderson, Tony Martin & David Pipe are trainers to note
- All winners since 2000 had won over 3m+ before
- 5 of the last 9 winners ran at Cheltenham’s January meeting
- 5 of the last 10 winners ran in the Coral Gold Cup (Hennessy) that season
- 12 of the last 15 winners had run at the Festival before
- Northern-based runners have a good record
Negatives….
- Be a bit wary of horses carrying 11-04 or more in weight – 12 of the last 19 carried 10-12 or less, although the 2017 winner carried 11-12 & the 2019 winner won with 11-8 and Corach Rambler in 2023 carried 10st 5bs)
- Horses aged 11 or older are just 3 from 55 to even get placed
- Be wary of Paul Nicholls-trained horses – he’s currently 0 from 25
- Only 3 winners in the last 15 hadn’t raced at a previous Festival
- Only 5 winners since 2000 have returned bigger than 11/1
- The Irish have won just 2 of the last 55 runnings (since 1967)
- Irish-trained runners are 0-38 in the last 17 runnings
- 2 winning favourites in the last 10 runnings (20%)
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3.30 - Unibet Champion Hurdle (Grade 1) 2m 87y ITV
2023 Winner: CONSTITUTION HILL (1st 4/11 fav)
Trainer – Nicky Henderson
Jockey – Nico de Boinville
UK/Irish: UK
Pluses….
- 34 of the last 40 won last time out
- 10 of the last 14 winners had run no more than 10 times over hurdles
- Horses unbeaten that season often do well (11 of last 13)
- The Irish and Nicky Henderson have won 21 of the last 25 runnings between them
- 10 of the last 15 winners came from the Henderson or Willie Mullins yards
- The Irish have won 15 of the last 25 runnings
- Owner JP McManus has won 6 of the last 14 (9 in total)
- Trainer Willie Mullins has won 4 of the last 13 runnings
- 28 of the last 34 winners were aged 6 or 7 years-old (12 of last 17)
- 15 of the last 25 winners had won at the Festival before
- 26 of the last 39 winners were placed in the first 4 at the previous season’s festival
- The Fighting Fifth Hurdle is a good guide (5 winners, 6 places in last 16 runnings)
- 14 of the last 28 winners started as flat horses
- The last 9 winners were unbeaten that season
- Look for horses that have raced at least once that calendar year
- Trainer Nicky Henderson has won the race 9 times, including 4 of the last 7 years
- 7 of the last 15 winners contested the Christmas Hurdle (Kempton)
- Mares are currently 4 from 9 during last 8 runnings
- 8 of the last 11 favourites won
- 7 winning favourites in the last 10 runnings (70%)
Negatives….
- Avoid horses that failed to finish in the top three last time out
- 5 year-olds are just 2 from 112 since 1985, but the 2019 winner was a 5 year-old
- Since 1927 we’ve only seen 2 winners aged 10 or older (0-30 in the last 41 runnings)
- Just 1 of the last 17 winners had raced more than 12 times over hurdles
- Christmas Hurdle (Kempton, 26th Dec) winners are just 5 from 33, but – Epatante 2020 & 2023 Constitution Hill) – did the Christmas Hurdle/Champion Hurdle double.
- Just 2 horses have regained the race since 1975
- International Hurdle winners are 0-from-13 (last 20 years)
- Only 2 of the last 25 winners hadn’t raced at the Festival before
- The last Supreme Novice’ Hurdle winner to win the Champion Hurdle the following season was Constitution Hill (2023), but before that was 52 years ago (Bula)
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4.10 - Close Brothers Mares' Hurdle (Grade 1) 2m 3f 200y ITV
2023 Winner: HONEYSUCKLE
Trainer – Henry De Bromhead
Jockey – Rachael Blackmore
UK/Irish: Irish
Pluses….
- Follow Irish-trained mares (13 of last 16)
- The favourite (or 2nd fav) have won 12 of the last 16 runnings
- 9 of the last 16 favourites have won
- 12 of the last 16 winners aged between 5-7 years-old
- 15 of the last 16 winners had won over at least 2m4f
- Willie Mullins has trained 9 of the last 16 winners
- Look for Willie Mullins, Nicky Henderson, Paul Nolan & Alan King runners
- Novices generally do well
- 11 of the last 16 winners had won a Grade 1 or 2 before
- 6 of the last 12 winners had won over 2m6f+ before
- Horses that began their careers in bumpers have done well
- Respect French-bred mares – won 9 renewals
- 12 of the last 16 winners returned 6/1 or shorter
- 13 of the last 16 winners had won (or placed) in a graded race against the males
Negatives….
- Avoid front-runners
- British-bred mares are currently 3-90
- Just 1 outright favourite in the last 9 runnings
- Just one winner from last 32 runners to wear headgear have won
- Be wary of Paul Nicholls, Philip Hobbs and Noel Meade runners
- Benie De Deaux is the only ex-flat horse to win the race
- Just 2 winners aged 8+ (Quevega & Honeysuckle)
- 3 winning favourites in the last 10 runnings (30%)
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4.50 - Boodles Juvenile Hurdle (Fred Winter Handicap Hurdle) 2m 87y) ITV
2023 Winner: JAZZY MATTY (18/1)
Trainer – Gordon Elliott
Jockey – Michael O’Sullivan
UK/Irish: Irish
Pluses….
- 10 of the last 19 winners had run exactly 3 times over hurdles before
- French bred horses have a good record
- 10 of the last 19 winners started their careers in France
- Respect Fillies
- 12 of the last 19 winners carried 11st+
- 9 of the last 19 winners won last time out
- 9 of the last 13 winners all came from the bottom half of the weights/handicap
- 11 of the last 19 had run in the last 25 days
- David Pipe, Paul Nicholls, Gordon Elliot (4 of last 11) and Alan King-trained horses often do well
- 6 of the last 12 winners returned between 25/1 and 40/1 (7 of the last 12 priced 25/1+)
- 13 of the last 19 winners returned a double-figure price
- Respect horses wearing headgear
- 14 of the last 19 winners were rated between 124-134
- 8 of the last 16 winners were British-trained
- Trainer Paul Nicholls has won 3 of the last 14 runnings
- 14 of the last 19 winners had won no more than once over hurdles
Negatives….
- Just 2 recent winners had last raced in January or further back
- Trainers Willie Mullins, Philip Hobbs and Venetia Williams are 0 from 40 between them
- Just 3 of the last 19 winners rated 135+
- Horses bred in Britain are 0-63 (last 14 years)
- Willie Mullins runners are 0 from 20 (just 3 placed in top 5 too)
- Only 3 winners had run in a handicap hurdle before
- No winner had raced at Cheltenham before
- Horses with 2+ wins over hurdles are just 2 from 19
- 1 winning favourites in the last 10 runnings (10%)
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5.30 – National Hunt Chase (Amateur Riders' Novices' Chase) (Grade 2) 3m 5f 201y RTV
2023 Winner: GAILLARD DU MESNIL 10/11 fav
Trainer – Willie Mullins
Jockey – Patrick Mullins
UK/Irish: Irish
Pluses…..
- 13 of the last 22 winners finished 1st or 2nd last time out
- 13 of the last 18 winners were aged 7 or 8 years-old (24 of the last 33)
- 10 of the last 14 winners had run 5+ times over fences
- 11 of the last 13 winners had run in a Graded Novice chase
- 7 of the last 13 winners had run in a Grade One Novice Chase that season
- 8 of the last 17 had run in a chase at Cheltenham before that season
- 10 of the last 14 winners had run at a previous Cheltenham Festival
- 10 of the last 13 winners returned a single-figure price
- Respect horses wearing headgear
- 9 of the last 13 winners Irish-trained
- 10 of the last 13 winners were rated 145 (or more)
- Look out for JP McManus-owned runners (6 winners)
- Jonjo O’Neill has trained 6 winners in the race (5-from-22)
- Jockey Derek O’Connor has 2 wins / 5 places (from 17 rides)
- Derek O’Connor, Jamie Codd & Patrick Mullins have won 9 of the last 13 (4 Mullins, 3 Codd, 2 O’Connor)
- Willie Mullins has won 4 of the last 11 runnings
- Jockey Jamie Codd has won 3 of the last 9
- Gordon Elliott has won the race 4 times from just 13 runners
- 3 of the last 6 winners owned by Ronnie Bartlett
Negatives….
- 5 and 6 year-olds are just 2 from 83 since 1989
- Just 5 of the last 13 winners were top-rated
- Favourites have won just 4 of the last 14 runnings
- Just 2 of the last 33 winners were aged 6 years-old
- Trainer Paul Nicholls has NEVER won this race - he’s currently 0 from 19
- Trainer Nicky Henderson has NEVER won this race
- Horses with less than 3 chase starts don’t fare well
- Horses rated in the 130’s have a poor record (1 from 15)
- Just 2 winners in the last 15 returned bigger than 12/1
- 1 winning favourites in the last 10 runnings (10%)
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Great article Andy.
Not wanting to point out a mistake (even though it is), I wanted to elaborate on the fact that 7 year olds have won 2 of the last 15 renewals of the Supreme from just 22 runners.
If you factor in lto winners and fancied in the betting (single figure odds), these 7yo’s have a record of 1-3-1 in the last 15 years
Just Asian Master qualifies then ,LTO winner,price 25 – 1 .