Kempton All Weather Draw Bias
As the nights have now closed in, those of us who prefer their racing in 75 second or shorter chunks are bereft of turf action until the end of March next year.
In the meantime, we will be served up a wealth of all weather races over sprint distances. And it is the effect of the draw in Kempton sprint races that I wanted to look at here.
I’d like to place on record my sincere thanks to David Peat of www.horseprofiles.co.uk for allowing me to reproduce the following datasets and commentary. These reports focus on five- and six-furlong races at Kempton (Lingfield, Southwell, and Wolverhampton will be added later in the week).
First up, you’ll notice a strong trend towards high numbers over both the five and six furlong courses at Kempton:
Kempton 5f races
Stall Bets Wins WinStrike SP_PL Places PlaceStrike
1 127 11 9% -45.58 28 22%
2 128 9 7% -75.25 36 28%
3 131 15 11% -59.32 36 27%
4 131 16 12% -38.14 29 22%
5 138 12 9% -83.49 41 30%
6 138 14 10% -48.64 38 28%
7 130 12 9% -53.92 32 25%
8 115 12 10% -26.17 37 32%
9 99 14 14% 14.83 39 39%
10 93 10 11% -20.62 33 35%
11 74 13 18% -7.50 34 46%
12 64 11 17% 20.25 22 34%
We can see from the above table that the high numbers would seem to hold an advantage in
5f races. This is especially true if we look at the place figures where above stall 8 we can see
that the place figures are significantly better than for stalls 1 to 7.
Now we will break this down by the numbers of runners to see if the high stall advantage still
stays in place
Kempton 5f – 1 to 7 runners
Stall Bets Wins WinStrike SP_PL Places PlaceStrike
1 33 3 9% -7.50 7 21%
2 34 4 12% -13.25 12 35%
3 34 6 18% -16.45 9 26%
4 34 7 21% 5.88 10 29%
5 38 5 13% -23.95 11 29%
6 32 4 13% -17.29 10 31%
7 27 7 26% 13.58 10 37%
Again even in a small field the highest stall shows a profit with a 26% strike rate whilst the
lowest stall has only a 9% strike rate.
Kempton 5f – 1 to 9 runners
Stall Bets Wins WinStrike SP_PL Places PlaceStrike
1 61 8 13% -10.08 16 26%
2 62 7 11% -21.25 23 37%
3 65 10 15% -28.57 20 31%
4 62 10 16% -11.37 16 26%
5 71 7 10% -47.62 22 31%
6 66 9 14% -31.64 21 32%
7 58 7 12% -17.42 18 31%
8 45 7 16% 7.33 19 42%
9 29 5 17% -0.50 17 59%
The bias is slightly more pronounced with a larger field especially with the place percentages.
Stall 9 has an amazing 59% of horses placed in the first 3.
Kempton 5f – 1 to 11 runners
Stall Bets Wins WinStrike SP_PL Places PlaceStrike
1 98 10 10% -29.58 24 24%
2 99 9 9% -46.25 32 32%
3 102 11 11% -63.32 30 29%
4 102 13 13% -27.64 23 23%
5 109 10 9% -65.99 32 29%
6 109 11 10% -40.14 32 29%
7 101 11 11% -34.92 28 28%
8 86 11 13% -3.67 29 34%
9 70 9 13% -2.67 30 43%
10 64 9 14% 2.88 25 39%
11 45 9 20% -4.25 20 44%
12 35 7 20% 10.75 13 37%
The draw bias in this category is even more pronounced with the top 5 stall showing a
minimum losses or small profits. The place percentages are significantly higher.
Now we have a look at whether there is any difference between handicaps and non
handicaps
Kempton 5f – Handicaps Only
Stall Bets Wins WinStrike SP_PL Places PlaceStrike
1 75 9 12% -3.83 18 24%
2 73 5 7% -46.00 22 30%
3 78 6 8% -45.25 17 22%
4 79 5 6% -50.50 13 16%
5 80 5 6% -55.67 22 28%
6 83 10 12% -6.42 25 30%
7 80 9 11% -17.42 22 28%
8 71 8 11% -8.67 20 28%
9 62 10 16% 11.83 25 40%
10 57 5 9% -19.12 20 35%
11 51 7 14% -14.00 23 45%
12 45 9 20% 31.00 16 36%
Again the top 4 stalls show a good return with a very high percentage of horses placed.
Kempton 5f – Non-Handicaps Only
Stall Bets Wins WinStrike SP_PL Places PlaceStrike
1 52 2 4% -41.75 10 19%
2 55 4 7% -29.25 14 25%
3 53 9 17% -14.07 19 36%
4 52 11 21% 12.36 16 31%
5 58 7 12% -27.82 19 33%
6 55 4 7% -42.22 13 24%
7 50 3 6% -36.50 10 20%
8 44 4 9% -17.50 17 39%
9 37 4 11% 3.00 14 38%
10 36 5 14% -1.50 13 36%
The draw bias is less pronounced at this distance with non having a real high percentage win
ratio.
Kempton 5f – Class 4, 5 and 6
Stall Bets Wins WinStrike SP_PL Places PlaceStrike
1 108 11 10% -31.58 24 22%
2 106 9 8% -53.25 34 32%
3 113 12 11% -66.32 29 26%
4 114 12 11% -50.64 25 22%
5 119 11 9% -77.49 35 29%
6 117 10 9% -64.02 31 26%
7 111 11 10% -39.92 28 25%
8 96 10 10% -16.67 28 29%
9 82 12 15% 6.83 35 43%
10 76 8 11% -20.12 27 36%
11 60 11 18% -4.50 29 48%
12 49 11 22% 35.25 18 37%
Again the top 4 stalls show a good return with a very high percentage of horses placed. The
top stall has a really good SP return.
Kempton 6f races
Stall Bets Wins WinStrike SP_PL Places PlaceStrike
1 317 25 8% -132.84 77 24%
2 322 26 8% -145.16 73 23%
3 338 27 8% -141.36 87 26%
4 344 44 13% -24.52 102 30%
5 334 31 9% -144.84 95 28%
6 327 24 7% -189.54 90 28%
7 319 38 12% -87.97 102 32%
8 303 45 15% 2.39 104 34%
9 276 19 7% -147.51 85 31%
10 245 25 10% -52.30 73 30%
11 210 32 15% -4.23 75 36%
12 183 28 15% 55.46 64 35%
The high draw bias that existed over 5f seems also to exist over 6f. In the bottom 6 stalls
only 1 stall has a strike rate over 9%. The top 3 stalls would seem the place to concentrate
with the top stall showing a significant profit.
Kempton 6f – 1 to 7 runners
Stall Bets Wins WinStrike SP_PL Places PlaceStrike
1 51 6 12% -25.89 17 33%
2 45 5 11% -19.62 12 27%
3 51 5 10% -26.71 10 20%
4 51 11 22% 38.33 17 33%
5 47 11 23% -13.98 17 36%
6 38 8 21% 0.17 17 45%
7 28 6 21% -7.98 13 46%
We can see that the top two stall show the least losses and do have a much higher place
strike rate.
Kempton 6f – 1 to 9 runners
Stall Bets Wins WinStrike SP_PL Places PlaceStrike
1 125 9 7% -88.34 39 31%
2 118 11 9% -64.29 35 30%
3 131 15 11% -37.61 37 28%
4 132 24 18% 51.08 49 37%
5 124 18 15% -38.54 47 38%
6 120 18 15% -39.54 43 36%
7 108 19 18% 9.52 42 39%
8 90 19 21% 10.01 38 42%
9 68 2 3% -54.00 15 22%
The bias does seem to vanish slightly at this distance, with the top two stall not performing
that well at all. It would seem that stalls 7 and 8 hold a slight advantage with this number of
runners.
Kempton 6f – 1 to 11 runners
Stall Bets Wins WinStrike SP_PL Places PlaceStrike
1 233 18 8% -120.34 61 26%
2 238 16 7% -147.41 55 23%
3 254 23 9% -86.86 70 28%
4 260 38 15% 21.41 86 33%
5 250 26 10% -106.54 77 31%
6 244 22 9% -120.04 75 31%
7 235 30 13% -62.47 79 34%
8 219 37 17% 23.51 78 36%
9 192 13 7% -104.89 58 30%
10 162 16 10% -53.80 53 33%
11 126 23 18% 19.77 45 36%
12 99 18 18% 45.96 38 38%
The bias once again returns here with the top two stall showing a significant profit (Stall 12 is
included as there maybe non-runners). As with 1 to 9 runners, Stall4 also shows a profit.
Kempton 6f – Handicaps Only
Stall Bets Wins WinStrike SP_PL Places PlaceStrike
1 204 17 8% -57.89 48 24%
2 207 16 8% -91.42 49 24%
3 220 18 8% -87.28 59 27%
4 224 27 12% -35.79 67 30%
5 215 15 7% -109.40 58 27%
6 220 15 7% -123.24 58 26%
7 213 24 11% -50.29 66 31%
8 205 33 16% 16.01 73 36%
9 185 16 9% -67.89 56 30%
10 162 13 8% -35.75 44 27%
11 140 24 17% 20.58 53 38%
12 121 18 15% 17.21 42 35%
The top two stalls are the place to concentrate on in handicaps at this distance showing a
good SP return.
Kempton 6f – Non-Handicaps Only
Stall Bets Wins WinStrike SP_PL Places PlaceStrike
1 117 8 7% -78.95 29 25%
2 119 10 8% -57.74 24 20%
3 121 9 7% -57.08 30 25%
4 124 18 15% 9.37 36 29%
5 121 16 13% -37.44 37 31%
6 111 10 9% -65.30 33 30%
7 110 15 14% -36.18 39 35%
8 100 12 12% -15.62 32 32%
9 93 4 4% -77.12 30 32%
10 85 12 14% -18.55 30 35%
11 70 8 11% -24.81 22 31%
12 62 10 16% 38.25 22 35%
Once again the top stall shows a profit and again the profit from stall 4 returns.
Kempton 6f – Class 4,5 and 6
Stall Bets Wins WinStrike SP_PL Places PlaceStrike
1 273 22 8% -117.84 64 23%
2 278 23 8% -130.66 62 22%
3 291 22 8% -149.46 75 26%
4 294 39 13% -24.92 93 32%
5 285 24 8% -153.34 79 28%
6 283 22 8% -156.04 82 29%
7 273 32 12% -86.47 90 33%
8 256 36 14% -23.61 83 32%
9 234 18 8% -120.89 75 32%
10 210 23 11% -26.80 66 31%
11 175 28 16% 16.24 62 35%
12 150 25 17% 74.96 54 36%
A huge profit can be gained by backing the top two stalls. All other stalls show a loss.
Kempton 6f – Class 1,2 and 3
Stall Bets Wins WinStrike SP_PL Places PlaceStrike
1 23 2 9% -1.00 5 22%
2 23 1 4% -15.00 7 30%
3 25 3 12% 3.10 7 28%
4 27 3 11% 7.00 6 22%
5 25 4 16% 8.00 9 36%
6 25 1 4% -22.00 4 16%
7 25 5 20% 7.50 8 32%
8 22 4 18% 12.50 8 36%
9 20 1 5% -3.00 5 25%
10 15 1 7% -12.50 5 33%
11 12 2 17% -3.00 6 50%
12 12 0 0% -12.00 3 25%
13 1 0 0% -1.00 1 100%
14 1 0 0% -1.00 0 0%
Not many races to go on here and not many patterns to find.
So that’s the analysis, but can we make a system out of it? In short, yes!
KEMPTON STALL ANALYSIS SYSTEM
Here is a small system using the above analysis and adding another couple of variables that
has shown a huge profit over the last few years:
Track: Kempton, All Weather Track
Race Class: Class 4, 5, or 6
Race Distance: Exactly 6f
Horse Weight: Between 126lbs (9-0) and 130lbs (9-4)
Placing Last Time Out: 2nd or worse
Stall: Stalls 11 and 12 only
WIN ONLY
Bets Wins WinStrike SP_PL Places PlaceStrike
131 31 23.66% 113.37 57 43.51%
EACH WAY
E/W Qualifiers Wins Placed SP Points E/W Strike
131 31 57 129.05 43.51%
BY YEAR
Period Bets Wins SP Points Strike Rate
2009 32 7 32.75 21.88%
2008 46 10 30.71 21.74%
2007 36 11 44 30.56%
2006 17 3 5.91 17.65%
Hi. having seen your draw analysis for Kempton I thought you might be interested in a system we’ve been running since Jan 2008
Kempton a/w
all 5+6F races
at least ten runners
must be drawn 8 or higher
sp maximum 12/1
back all qualifiers e/w on betfair
2008 + 59pts
2009 + 119pts so far
Hi Tim
Do you mean if there is fifteen runners you back all the runners 8 and higher, so you would be backing seven runners e/w
if they are priced 12/1 or less then yes
what stakes are you backing theses horses to?
are you backing the rest of the field to level s.p.
have you got the back data?
we started backing each selection £5ew and have increased it gradually using the square root staking plan .
we only back the selections usually 3 or 4 in a race
you can check the past results to sp on horseracebase.com by entering the system rules.
this system also made a nice profit in 2006,2007
Thanks a lot for sharing that Tim. There’s definitely a high draw bias, and what amazes me is that the market at Kempton (especially on weekday evenings) is so weak that – despite the relatively widespread awareness of it – there’s still decent profits to be had.
Well done to you (and your team?), and again thanks a million for sharing.
Best,
Matt
hi matt
tonights qualifiers at kempton were 1st 15/2 and 2nd 2/1 in the 8.50 c.s.f. 23.26
looks like a profitable angle for this one.
cheers
david
Hi David
Yes indeed. High numbers appear to also be favoured at the 7f trip round Kempton, so this is definitely info to keep to hand when playing on the AW this winter.
Best,
Matt
Hi
just to say there were 3 qualifying selections in last nights race, backing 1pt e/w on betfair sp showed a net profit of 8.7pts
With the draw in the 7f at Kempton ive only ever found it profitable backing at sp of 3/1 or shorter with a draw of 8 or higher near 40% s/r , dont know why this should differ so from 5+6f , pehaps like they say 7f is a specialist distance, would be interested in any views
regards
Tim
3 selections again tonight backing 1 pt e/w @ bf sp 4.16 net profit and a nice £30.65 sf
2 selections in 630 backing 1pt e/w @ bf sp 3 pts net profit
won evens
3rd 12/1
Great system Tim. I managed to get on the winner at 7/1 and the 2nd at 6/1!
Cheers
Brian
Hi all,
has anyone worked out if there is any qualifiers at Kempton this evening?
3 Qualifying races for Sunday 225, 325, 355
Hi TIm,
yes I see we have 3 Qualifying races for Sunday 225, 325, 355. Also, I assume using your 7F system, we have a qualifying race at 4.55???
I don’t know if you saw my earlier comment, but I am struggling to understand, if using Betfair to place Each/Way bets, one needs to place bets in 2 markets (win market & place market). But if we need to conditionally only place the WIN bet if its less than 12/1, under what criteria do you not place the PLACE bet? It probably sounds like a stupid question….but I’d love someone to clarify…especially considering your system is so successful.
Hi Paddy,
place bet and win bet on all selections sp12/1 or shorter (2 seperate markets)
not so good to day 1 winner and 2 placed just outside price rules , but still not too bad -5.9 pts to bf sp over the three races
in the 455 (7f hand) looks likely that Seek the fair land will be a bet
Hi there,
for Tim’s system when using Betfair to place each way bets, I assume the only way to do this is to put 1 bet in the WIN market and 1 bet in the PLACE market? If so, do any of our readers know if any of the betting bots such as GHB have the capability of figuring out when placing the separate PLACE bet how to prevent the bet being placed if the maximum SP criteria (ie 12/1) has been exceeded. Because obviously, the odds are calculated differently in the PLACE market. Yours….confused,
thanks
Paddy
Only just got around to reading this and results do look good. I have a small question but it would affect qualifying selections. Are we talking Industry SP at 12/1 or Betfair SP?
Thanks
Paul
Hi Paul
max industry sp 12/1
betfair bigger the better
Congratulations Tim. Your system produced the first 3 in the 4.35 and the winner was 16.6 on betfair. Brilliant! Fingers crossed for the 5.05.
Cheers
Brian
Hi Paul
although we dont have the exact figures doing combination exactas with all qualifiers
has made a decent profit in last six months
15.66 pts net profit today over the 2 races
Hi Tim,
I use a bot (Grey Horse Bot). I assume you use something similar. In that case, how do you place bets to filter out max industry over sp of 12/1. I know this is possible to do against BetFair SP, but I am not aware of any product that allows you to compare against Industry SP. How do you do it?
Great system by the way!
Also Tim, I used your two systems, the 5+6F system and your 7F system on the 21st December. I am trying to figure out how you produced a higher overall points profit on the day than I did. I will break down my results below. I just want to check I am not mis-applying your system rules…..
4.35 Megalo Maniac – LOST – 1 point loss (Win odds were > 13.0, so no win bet was placed)
4.35 Kingsgate Castle – PLACE – 0.06 point profit
4.35 Golden Dixie – PLACE – 2.09 point profit
4.35 Valentino Swing – WON – 13.68 point profit
5.05 Greek Secret – LOST- 1 point loss (Win odds were > 13.0, so no win bet was placed)
5.05 Bountiful Bay – LOST- 2 point loss
5.05 Cool Sands – PLACE – 0.3 point profit
5.05 Fuzzy Cat – PLACE – 0.82 point profit
5.05 Exceed Elegance – LOST- 1 point loss (Win odds were > 13.0, so no win bet was placed)
So, between the 2 races, I made a nice 11.95 Net Point profit. Yet, it is significantly nearly 4 points less than your profits. Do your selections differ from mine in the 2 races. Note: All points profit include the BetFair 5% deduction. All bets above were placed on the WIN and place bet markets unless otherwise specified.
Also, I used your 7F system for the 2pm and 2:30 races, but I made a 1.66 points loss using this. Do you use the 7F system?
All comments are greatly appreciated Tim
Hi Paddy,
the odds you quote are not betfair sp, for instance valentino swing net price 14.78/1 for win and 2.7/1 for place
if qualifying by draw and 12/1 max and number of runners you back 1 point win and one point place on all selections. eg 4 qualifiers 8 bets.
you can check the b/f sp,s in betfair results section
as for the 7f system it does pay overall but not a touch on the 5/6f system, we do use the 7f system regularly.
On the 7f draw at kempton, since the start of November we’ve been using this: 9 losers 1 winner , paid 22.9/1 on betfair
must be a handicap
must be drawn 5 or 6
must be industry sp 7/1 to 20/1
must have been off the track for the last ten days
horrible strike rate 14.1% but if you stick with it has shown a decent profit over the last 3 years
2007 +19 pts@industry sp
2008 +72 pts
2009 +37 pts
Hi Paddy
sorry I dont know anything about bots all our bets are put on manually, did use hipro86 for a few weeks but cant get on with them, I bet with 2 other people using joint accounts so one of us is always available to place bets
That’s fantastic Tim. I noticed as well that the horse that finished fourth was also a qualifier on the draw, though not on price, as he was a 33/1 shot – just goes to underline the power of a high draw in Kempton sprints.
What I’m shocked about is that it still pays so handsomely to follow!
Matt
hi tim/all
fantastic results!!!
do you think you could post the qualifiers each meeting/
as you are using the the system live so to speak (actually backing the selections).
only asking as were all busy working our own systems and somtimes i for one lose track of time and sometimes miss a winner or two.
seasons greetings
david
will post qualifiers from 01/01/10 very busy thru xmas period
Hi Tim
thanks for that, much appreciated.
all the best
david
Hi TIm,
thanks for your ongoing comments. Can you clarify a few things?
You have mentioned in this forum that you have TWO separate 7f Kempton systems. Do you use both of them on an ongoing basis?
Secondly, what way do you filter the selections by industry SP? Do you place the bets manually on Betfair just before the off having just compared to the latest prices available on somewhere like Bet365….or do you have a better approach?
Tim
Are you going to post selections now that racing seems to be going ahead on a regular basis?
cheers
David
Weds 13/01/10
1645 kemp
(at 1530)
looks likely there will be 4 qualifiers
brazilian brush
dianes choice
equinity
black draft
first three , £48 sf , nice result
just under 6.5 pts profit to bf sp
Tim
Thanks very much for posting selections and what a nice return too
much appreciated.
Cheers
David
Great stuff Tim – it really does amaze me that there’s still profit to be had in this system. Amaze and delight me, that is!
Matt
700 Kemp
looks like there will be only two qualifiers
val c + major maximus
starwatch and la toya j both currently trading at over 20/1 check prices before the off
– 6PTS (3 QUALIFIERS ALL UNPLACED)
All the more painful as we needed one of these for the placepot (x16)
435 KEMP
poss 5 qualifiers looking at prices lunchtime
valentino swing
perlachy
milne bay
westwood
loyal royal
Hi All,
If you use Betting Asst. by Gruss software, they have a liveshow spreadsheet which can be used with the program and you can then program a vba app within Excel to monitor those live prices – you can then have a triggered bet when a qualifier is found etc.
Haven’t been ‘here’ for ages too busy with ‘life’ and some product reviews 😮
Hope everyone is finaly getting some action since the weather ;¬)
Paul S.
Sorry…just thought you don’t even need the vba you could use cell formulas although not quite as effiecient ;¬)
Matt these stats are great, as the new flat will soon be upon us is there anywhere you would recommend getting draw stats for the flat, I have check Adrian Massey’s web site which has a wealth of info, was wondering if there where any other good sources of info.
Hi Pete
One free site I found was http://www.drawbias.com. I’m sure there are others.
Cheers
Brian
Thanks Brian – that looks an excellent site.
I have to sound a note of caution from bitter experience though. Last season, a lot of the ‘conventional wisdom’ of draw biases – as well as a lot of research from yours truly – went well and truly west, as high draw favouring tracks consistently returned low drawn winners, and vice versa.
If you can get hold of any information regarding track work undertaken in the close season, this will certainly give you a major edge.
One final thought: do NOT trust jockeys to necessarily know where the most favoured part of the track is…
Best,
Matt
Brian thanks for the info, very helpful.
Pete