Two-Year-Old Angles for Early Season

The flat season will be the pre-eminent focus now, after the conclusion of the Aintree Grand National and, to get us off to a flyer (hopefully), I’ve got a couple of angles to conjure with in the early weeks and months.

The stark contrasts of racing’s calendar are never better exemplified than at this time of year, when the grand old campaigners lobbing and leaping around Aintree share the equine bill with, and hand over the horse-y baton to, those taking their first fledgling strides on a racecourse.

I like two year old races, especially early in the season. The reason I like them is this: with the dearth of form in those early months – many horses making their debuts on a race track – the betting market tends to overreact to a stable whisper.

Many a good horse has come unstuck on its first run (Sea The Stars springs to mind for a start).

The problem for a young horse on its first run is that so much of the experience is new, and so many horses are immature between their ears, even if they know what they are expected to do on the track.

As such, the benefit of a run in a two year old is massive. Let me illustrate that.

If you’d bet every two year old debutante that was sent off favourite in the last five years, you’d have won 177 of 618 bets (28.64% strike rate) for a loss of 11.49% of your investment.

However, if you’d bet every two year old that was sent off favourite on its second start, you’d have won 710 out of 1,790 bets (a whopping 39.88% strike rate) and shown a negligible loss of just 2.23% of stakes.

Sure enough, using that ‘two year old favourite on second start’ profile as a baseline, it’s not difficult to get into the realms of a profitable system at SP (let alone the profit you’d already be generated if using the exchanges to back qualifiers).

Funnily enough, given how simple it is, if you backed those two year old favourites on their second outing, after they won their first start, you’d have won 106 out of 226 bets over the last five years for a profit at SP of €28.06 for a €1 level stake. That’s a strike rate of 47% and a 12.5% ROI from backing last time out winners on their second juvenile start, when they’re favourite. As a betting system, that one is plain as the nose on my face!

Incidentally, you can use this system at any time during the year, and not just in the early Spring months.

Looking solely at the early months of March, April and May, and the performance of second time out 2yo’s, I also found this interesting little system:

– Colts / Geldings (i.e. males) only

– Finished 2nd to 6th on debut

– Last ran 8-31 days ago

– Running today in the same or lower class

Following these qualifiers would have netted a tidy profit over the last five years. Specifically, 79 winners from 282 bets (28.01% strike rate) for a €56.49 return to a €1 level stake. That’s 20% ROI, at SP. And, given that these horses won at odds of up to and including 22/1, you can expect a much healthier return for your investment on the exchanges.

I estimate that the 20% ROI at SP could have been increased to as high as 33%, even after paying commission.

So, whether you’re betting Grand National warriors or equine ‘toddlers’, pay attention to the figures above, and we should all put a few additional euro in our pockets this Spring.


One Response to “Two-Year-Old Angles for Early Season”
  1. Greg Humphreys says:

    Hi Matt.
    How do I get a copy of your free big odds system that is all over the internet> Cheers,Greg.

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