Southwell All Weather Draw Bias

Continuing our look at the sprint trips on the all weather courses, today’s post takes a comprehensive squint at Southwell’s five and six furlong distances, based on David Peat’s excellent reports.

It’s fair to say that there is a dichotomy between the significance of the data, with the five furlong trip proving much more receptive to draw-based analysis.

Without further verbiage from me, let’s get down to it.

Southwell 5f races

Stall Bets Wins WinStrike SP_PL Places PlaceStrike
1 350 59 17% 87.06 139 40%
2 361 49 14% -80.44 133 37%
3 360 40 11% -112.45 122 34%
4 363 42 12% -93.75 111 31%
5 348 37 11% -106.95 101 29%
6 351 38 11% -97.57 110 31%
7 332 27 8% -117.96 84 25%
8 306 19 6% -121.67 68 22%
9 267 17 6% -125.00 55 21%
10 237 14 6% -59.13 45 19%
11 189 15 8% 4.00 35 19%
12 159 5 3% -101.25 24 15%
13 122 7 6% -68.54 21 17%
14 100 5 5% -42.00 13 13%

We can see from the above table that low numbers hold a significant advantage and Stall 1
would seem the place to be as it shows a very good profit.

Now we will break this down by the numbers of runners to see if the high stall advantage still
stays in place.

Southwell 5f – 1 to 7 runners

Stall Bets Wins WinStrike SP_PL Places PlaceStrike
1 61 11 18% 3.71 23 38%
2 63 18 29% 15.31 25 40%
3 65 5 8% -52.59 17 26%
4 62 14 23% 7.46 22 35%
5 58 10 17% -0.43 21 36%
6 52 5 10% -24.50 15 29%
7 34 3 9% -20.67 6 18%
8 11 1 9% 0.00 1 9%

The bottom 4four stalls are the place to concentrate on (only stall 3 showing a low strike rate)

Southwell 5f – 1 to 9 runners

Stall Bets Wins WinStrike SP_PL Places PlaceStrike
1 135 26 19% 37.26 59 44%
2 139 27 19% -26.45 51 37%
3 141 15 11% -87.18 49 35%
4 138 24 17% 12.75 46 33%
5 131 22 17% 8.74 49 37%
6 128 14 11% -48.15 41 32%
7 109 9 8% -73.29 32 29%
8 87 6 7% -49.50 25 29%
9 50 3 6% -31.75 9 18%
10 16 2 13% -5.38 7 44%

Stall 1 now comes out as the one to follow. The bottom five Stalls have the highest strike
rate (Stall 4 and 5 also showing a profit).

Southwell 5f – 1 to 11 runners

Stall Bets Wins WinStrike SP_PL Places PlaceStrike
1 217 41 19% 33.73 96 44%
2 224 40 18% -27.69 88 39%
3 223 22 10% -135.95 76 34%
4 226 33 15% -13.63 75 33%
5 214 28 13% -38.71 67 31%
6 213 24 11% -59.82 68 32%
7 194 17 9% -64.79 54 28%
8 171 10 6% -100.67 40 23%
9 133 10 8% -56.75 29 22%
10 102 3 3% -50.38 20 20%

As the fields get bigger the more pronounced the advantage Stall 1 holds over the field.

Southwell 5f – Handicaps

Stall Bets Wins WinStrike SP_PL Places PlaceStrike
1 179 29 16% 36.84 65 36%
2 187 24 13% -53.78 73 39%
3 187 20 11% -56.12 63 34%
4 189 22 12% -26.38 59 31%
5 180 19 11% -45.24 58 32%
6 182 21 12% -39.32 58 32%
7 174 15 9% -26.34 48 28%
8 165 14 8% -31.67 41 25%
9 146 9 6% -75.75 25 17%
10 131 5 4% -81.00 22 17%
11 104 7 7% -33.00 20 19%
12 84 2 2% -74.50 12 14%
13 65 3 5% -29.50 14 22%
14 54 3 6% -6.00 6 11%

Once again the low draw bias is evident with again only Stall 1 showing a profit.

Southwell 5f – Non Handicaps

Stall Bets Wins WinStrike SP_PL Places PlaceStrike
1 171 30 18% 50.22 74 43%
2 174 25 14% -26.66 60 34%
3 173 20 12% -56.33 59 34%
4 174 20 11% -67.37 52 30%
5 168 18 11% -61.71 43 26%
6 169 17 10% -58.25 52 31%
7 158 12 8% -91.62 36 23%
8 141 5 4% -90.00 27 19%
9 121 8 7% -49.25 30 25%
10 106 9 8% 21.87 23 22%
11 85 8 9% 37.00 15 18%
12 75 3 4% -26.75 12 16%
13 57 4 7% -39.04 7 12%
14 46 2 4% -36.00 7 15%

Once again the percentages drop the higher up the draw we go, with Stall 1 again seemingly
the place to be.

Southwell 5f – Class 4, 5 and 6

Stall Bets Wins WinStrike SP_PL Places PlaceStrike
1 262 39 15% -1.75 101 39%
2 275 38 14% -89.67 97 35%
3 272 32 12% -66.95 93 34%
4 273 33 12% -55.38 86 32%
5 264 33 13% -58.05 79 30%
6 262 27 10% -92.15 80 31%
7 242 22 9% -90.79 67 28%
8 220 16 7% -57.67 50 23%
9 193 11 6% -97.75 39 20%
10 170 9 5% -67.13 34 20%
11 135 12 9% 12.00 26 19%
12 109 5 5% -51.25 18 17%
13 77 5 6% -32.87 15 19%
14 63 2 3% -22.50 5 8%

Stall 11 shows a profit, Stall 1 shows a small loss but still has the highest strike rate.

Southwell 5f – Class 1, 2 and 3

Stall Bets Wins WinStrike SP_PL Places PlaceStrike
1 29 4 14% 12.75 10 34%
2 28 4 14% -10.27 14 50%
3 30 2 7% -18.25 7 23%
4 30 2 7% -16.50 6 20%
5 27 1 4% -20.00 9 33%
6 29 5 17% 2.58 12 41%
7 30 3 10% 18.33 8 27%
8 29 2 7% -11.50 7 24%
9 24 3 13% 6.00 5 21%
10 17 2 12% 1.50 3 18%
11 13 0 0% -13.00 5 38%
12 10 0 0% -10.00 0 0%
13 10 0 0% -10.00 1 10%
14 8 1 13% -0.50 3 38%
15 3 0 0% -3.00 0 0%
16 3 1 33% 12.00 1 33%

Not many races to go here although Stall 1 again shows a profit.
Unfortunately, I cannot find anything concrete and reliable enough on which to base a system.

Southwell 6f races

Stall Bets Wins WinStrike SP_PL Places PlaceStrike
1 521 42 8% -110.61 123 24%
2 529 55 10% -109.90 141 27%
3 524 59 11% -69.29 149 28%
4 520 68 13% -118.81 159 31%
5 524 62 12% -173.43 164 31%
6 508 41 8% -168.26 156 31%
7 491 47 10% -139.94 134 27%
8 454 42 9% -148.00 104 23%
9 416 39 9% -76.57 120 29%
10 359 34 9% -53.32 107 30%
11 303 23 8% -64.50 76 25%
12 243 14 6% -105.50 49 20%
13 202 11 5% -36.90 36 18%
14 165 12 7% -4.00 33 20%
15 35 2 6% -16.00 8 23%
16 33 3 9% 1.00 10 30%

There is no evident draw bias at this distance when looking at the overall numbers.

Southwell 6f – 1 to 7 runners

Stall Bets Wins WinStrike SP_PL Places PlaceStrike
1 80 11 14% -5.45 20 25%
2 82 17 21% -17.26 30 37%
3 78 12 15% -14.43 25 32%
4 78 13 17% -25.35 23 29%
5 75 16 21% -13.45 26 35%
6 68 9 13% 14.04 23 34%
7 48 7 15% -24.65 17 35%

Again nothing strong to note.

Southwell 6f – 1 to 9 runners

Stall Bets Wins WinStrike SP_PL Places PlaceStrike
1 80 11 14% -5.45 20 25%
2 82 17 21% -17.26 30 37%
3 78 12 15% -14.43 25 32%
4 78 13 17% -25.35 23 29%
5 75 16 21% -13.45 26 35%
6 68 9 13% 14.04 23 34%
7 48 7 15% -24.65 17 35%
1 80 11 14% -5.45 20 25%
2 82 17 21% -17.26 30 37%
3 78 12 15% -14.43 25 32%

Nothing of any interest again…

Southwell 6f – 1 to 11 runners

Stall Bets Wins WinStrike SP_PL Places PlaceStrike
1 307 30 10% -40.61 82 27%
2 316 36 11% -72.63 92 29%
3 312 41 13% -34.04 103 33%
4 306 42 14% -92.51 102 33%
5 306 45 15% -91.18 108 35%
6 296 28 9% -56.18 102 34%
7 278 34 12% -21.19 85 31%
8 244 28 11% -48.25 68 28%
9 200 20 10% -35.27 66 33%
10 149 16 11% -56.07 48 32%
11 86 9 10% -33.50 26 30%
12 34 1 3% -24.50 12 35%

As there is so little to note at this distance there seems little point at looking at any more
variables.

These analyses come directly from the members’ area of Horse Profiles. If you enjoy this type of research, you should definitely check out David’s full service. It’s guaranteed, so you can try it out risk-free. But I’m pretty sure you’ll enjoy it as much as I do.

Click here to find out more about Horse Profiles…

Matt

Comments

5 Responses to “Southwell All Weather Draw Bias”
  1. chris harman says:

    There is a really good system I’ve been using for a while now and it very nearly made me about 2 grand today for very small stakes.

    The qualifiers were:

    2:40 Fontwell: Bangkok Pete
    3:10 Fontwell: Wasnt me
    1:50 Sedgefield: Presenting forever
    1:50 Sedgefield: Smart Mistress
    2:50 Sedgefield: Toulouse Express

    Result: Bangkok Pete won at 11/2, Presenting Forever won at 11/4, Toulouse Express won at 12/1, Smart Mistress second at 14/1 and Wasnt Me was nowhere. I took the prices but Smart Mistress finished at 25/1. The system only includes SP’s up to 14/1 which is why I didn’t back Mac’s Island in the 1:20 at Sedgefield. He finished 2nd at 80/1. I had a £2 trixie on the top 3 and a 50p each-way trixie on the top two plus Toulouse Express. I didn’t do the forecast on the 1:50 which paid around £30 for the straight forecast.

    The system: Trainer Track Stats 2007/2008 by Matt Bisogno

    • Matt Bisogno says:

      Thanks Chris – you’re a gent! 🙂

      That manual has netted you around sixty grand now, hasn’t it?

      Good stuff mate.

      Matt

      • chris harman says:

        Put it this way Matt: the manual has allowed me to be off work since April. It’s also given me the impetus to try and find workable systems that hopefully will mean working more for myself and less reliant on trying to find work, especially during this nasty recession.

      • I’m using the 2008-9 version with nowhere near your success Chris!

        Last years must be a better vintage!

        I’m realy disappointed with the service since Gavin took it over.

        My bot no longer functions and Gavin has ignored every email I have sent him on the subject forcing me to seek a refund via Paypal.

        Hey Matt, what’s up with your mate?

        Please come back!!

  2. Paddy says:

    Hi Matt,
    great analysis. Can you offer a summary of the analysis you did above similar to what you did for Kempton which was very useful?

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