Kempton All Weather Draw Bias

As the nights have now closed in, those of us who prefer their racing in 75 second or shorter chunks are bereft of turf action until the end of March next year.

In the meantime, we will be served up a wealth of all weather races over sprint distances. And it is the effect of the draw in Kempton sprint races that I wanted to look at here.

I’d like to place on record my sincere thanks to David Peat of www.horseprofiles.co.uk for allowing me to reproduce the following datasets and commentary. These reports focus on five- and six-furlong races at Kempton (Lingfield,  Southwell, and Wolverhampton will be added later in the week).

First up, you’ll notice a strong trend towards high numbers over both the five and six furlong courses at Kempton:

Kempton 5f races
Stall Bets Wins WinStrike SP_PL Places PlaceStrike
1 127 11 9% -45.58 28 22%
2 128 9 7% -75.25 36 28%
3 131 15 11% -59.32 36 27%
4 131 16 12% -38.14 29 22%
5 138 12 9% -83.49 41 30%
6 138 14 10% -48.64 38 28%
7 130 12 9% -53.92 32 25%
8 115 12 10% -26.17 37 32%
9 99 14 14% 14.83 39 39%
10 93 10 11% -20.62 33 35%
11 74 13 18% -7.50 34 46%
12 64 11 17% 20.25 22 34%

We can see from the above table that the high numbers would seem to hold an advantage in
5f races. This is especially true if we look at the place figures where above stall 8 we can see
that the place figures are significantly better than for stalls 1 to 7.
Now we will break this down by the numbers of runners to see if the high stall advantage still
stays in place
Kempton 5f – 1 to 7 runners
Stall Bets Wins WinStrike SP_PL Places PlaceStrike
1 33 3 9% -7.50 7 21%
2 34 4 12% -13.25 12 35%
3 34 6 18% -16.45 9 26%
4 34 7 21% 5.88 10 29%
5 38 5 13% -23.95 11 29%
6 32 4 13% -17.29 10 31%
7 27 7 26% 13.58 10 37%
Again even in a small field the highest stall shows a profit with a 26% strike rate whilst the
lowest stall has only a 9% strike rate.
Kempton 5f – 1 to 9 runners
Stall Bets Wins WinStrike SP_PL Places PlaceStrike
1 61 8 13% -10.08 16 26%
2 62 7 11% -21.25 23 37%
3 65 10 15% -28.57 20 31%
4 62 10 16% -11.37 16 26%
5 71 7 10% -47.62 22 31%
6 66 9 14% -31.64 21 32%
7 58 7 12% -17.42 18 31%
8 45 7 16% 7.33 19 42%
9 29 5 17% -0.50 17 59%
The bias is slightly more pronounced with a larger field especially with the place percentages.
Stall 9 has an amazing 59% of horses placed in the first 3.
Kempton 5f – 1 to 11 runners
Stall Bets Wins WinStrike SP_PL Places PlaceStrike
1 98 10 10% -29.58 24 24%
2 99 9 9% -46.25 32 32%
3 102 11 11% -63.32 30 29%
4 102 13 13% -27.64 23 23%
5 109 10 9% -65.99 32 29%
6 109 11 10% -40.14 32 29%
7 101 11 11% -34.92 28 28%
8 86 11 13% -3.67 29 34%
9 70 9 13% -2.67 30 43%
10 64 9 14% 2.88 25 39%
11 45 9 20% -4.25 20 44%
12 35 7 20% 10.75 13 37%
The draw bias in this category is even more pronounced with the top 5 stall showing a
minimum losses or small profits. The place percentages are significantly higher.
Now we have a look at whether there is any difference between handicaps and non
handicaps
Kempton 5f – Handicaps Only
Stall Bets Wins WinStrike SP_PL Places PlaceStrike
1 75 9 12% -3.83 18 24%
2 73 5 7% -46.00 22 30%
3 78 6 8% -45.25 17 22%
4 79 5 6% -50.50 13 16%
5 80 5 6% -55.67 22 28%
6 83 10 12% -6.42 25 30%
7 80 9 11% -17.42 22 28%
8 71 8 11% -8.67 20 28%
9 62 10 16% 11.83 25 40%
10 57 5 9% -19.12 20 35%
11 51 7 14% -14.00 23 45%
12 45 9 20% 31.00 16 36%

Again the top 4 stalls show a good return with a very high percentage of horses placed.
Kempton 5f – Non-Handicaps Only
Stall Bets Wins WinStrike SP_PL Places PlaceStrike
1 52 2 4% -41.75 10 19%
2 55 4 7% -29.25 14 25%
3 53 9 17% -14.07 19 36%
4 52 11 21% 12.36 16 31%
5 58 7 12% -27.82 19 33%
6 55 4 7% -42.22 13 24%
7 50 3 6% -36.50 10 20%
8 44 4 9% -17.50 17 39%
9 37 4 11% 3.00 14 38%
10 36 5 14% -1.50 13 36%
The draw bias is less pronounced at this distance with non having a real high percentage win
ratio.
Kempton 5f – Class 4, 5 and 6
Stall Bets Wins WinStrike SP_PL Places PlaceStrike
1 108 11 10% -31.58 24 22%
2 106 9 8% -53.25 34 32%
3 113 12 11% -66.32 29 26%
4 114 12 11% -50.64 25 22%
5 119 11 9% -77.49 35 29%
6 117 10 9% -64.02 31 26%
7 111 11 10% -39.92 28 25%
8 96 10 10% -16.67 28 29%
9 82 12 15% 6.83 35 43%
10 76 8 11% -20.12 27 36%
11 60 11 18% -4.50 29 48%
12 49 11 22% 35.25 18 37%
Again the top 4 stalls show a good return with a very high percentage of horses placed. The
top stall has a really good SP return.
Kempton 6f races
Stall Bets Wins WinStrike SP_PL Places PlaceStrike
1 317 25 8% -132.84 77 24%
2 322 26 8% -145.16 73 23%
3 338 27 8% -141.36 87 26%
4 344 44 13% -24.52 102 30%
5 334 31 9% -144.84 95 28%
6 327 24 7% -189.54 90 28%
7 319 38 12% -87.97 102 32%
8 303 45 15% 2.39 104 34%
9 276 19 7% -147.51 85 31%
10 245 25 10% -52.30 73 30%
11 210 32 15% -4.23 75 36%
12 183 28 15% 55.46 64 35%
The high draw bias that existed over 5f seems also to exist over 6f. In the bottom 6 stalls
only 1 stall has a strike rate over 9%. The top 3 stalls would seem the place to concentrate
with the top stall showing a significant profit.
Kempton 6f – 1 to 7 runners
Stall Bets Wins WinStrike SP_PL Places PlaceStrike
1 51 6 12% -25.89 17 33%
2 45 5 11% -19.62 12 27%
3 51 5 10% -26.71 10 20%
4 51 11 22% 38.33 17 33%
5 47 11 23% -13.98 17 36%
6 38 8 21% 0.17 17 45%
7 28 6 21% -7.98 13 46%
We can see that the top two stall show the least losses and do have a much higher place
strike rate.
Kempton 6f – 1 to 9 runners
Stall Bets Wins WinStrike SP_PL Places PlaceStrike
1 125 9 7% -88.34 39 31%
2 118 11 9% -64.29 35 30%
3 131 15 11% -37.61 37 28%
4 132 24 18% 51.08 49 37%
5 124 18 15% -38.54 47 38%
6 120 18 15% -39.54 43 36%
7 108 19 18% 9.52 42 39%
8 90 19 21% 10.01 38 42%
9 68 2 3% -54.00 15 22%

The bias does seem to vanish slightly at this distance, with the top two stall not performing
that well at all. It would seem that stalls 7 and 8 hold a slight advantage with this number of
runners.
Kempton 6f – 1 to 11 runners
Stall Bets Wins WinStrike SP_PL Places PlaceStrike
1 233 18 8% -120.34 61 26%
2 238 16 7% -147.41 55 23%
3 254 23 9% -86.86 70 28%
4 260 38 15% 21.41 86 33%
5 250 26 10% -106.54 77 31%
6 244 22 9% -120.04 75 31%
7 235 30 13% -62.47 79 34%
8 219 37 17% 23.51 78 36%
9 192 13 7% -104.89 58 30%
10 162 16 10% -53.80 53 33%
11 126 23 18% 19.77 45 36%
12 99 18 18% 45.96 38 38%
The bias once again returns here with the top two stall showing a significant profit (Stall 12 is
included as there maybe non-runners). As with 1 to 9 runners, Stall4 also shows a profit.
Kempton 6f – Handicaps Only
Stall Bets Wins WinStrike SP_PL Places PlaceStrike
1 204 17 8% -57.89 48 24%
2 207 16 8% -91.42 49 24%
3 220 18 8% -87.28 59 27%
4 224 27 12% -35.79 67 30%
5 215 15 7% -109.40 58 27%
6 220 15 7% -123.24 58 26%
7 213 24 11% -50.29 66 31%
8 205 33 16% 16.01 73 36%
9 185 16 9% -67.89 56 30%
10 162 13 8% -35.75 44 27%
11 140 24 17% 20.58 53 38%
12 121 18 15% 17.21 42 35%
The top two stalls are the place to concentrate on in handicaps at this distance showing a
good SP return.
Kempton 6f – Non-Handicaps Only
Stall Bets Wins WinStrike SP_PL Places PlaceStrike
1 117 8 7% -78.95 29 25%
2 119 10 8% -57.74 24 20%
3 121 9 7% -57.08 30 25%
4 124 18 15% 9.37 36 29%
5 121 16 13% -37.44 37 31%
6 111 10 9% -65.30 33 30%
7 110 15 14% -36.18 39 35%
8 100 12 12% -15.62 32 32%
9 93 4 4% -77.12 30 32%
10 85 12 14% -18.55 30 35%
11 70 8 11% -24.81 22 31%
12 62 10 16% 38.25 22 35%
Once again the top stall shows a profit and again the profit from stall 4 returns.
Kempton 6f – Class 4,5 and 6
Stall Bets Wins WinStrike SP_PL Places PlaceStrike
1 273 22 8% -117.84 64 23%
2 278 23 8% -130.66 62 22%
3 291 22 8% -149.46 75 26%
4 294 39 13% -24.92 93 32%
5 285 24 8% -153.34 79 28%
6 283 22 8% -156.04 82 29%
7 273 32 12% -86.47 90 33%
8 256 36 14% -23.61 83 32%
9 234 18 8% -120.89 75 32%
10 210 23 11% -26.80 66 31%
11 175 28 16% 16.24 62 35%
12 150 25 17% 74.96 54 36%
A huge profit can be gained by backing the top two stalls. All other stalls show a loss.
Kempton 6f – Class 1,2 and 3
Stall Bets Wins WinStrike SP_PL Places PlaceStrike
1 23 2 9% -1.00 5 22%
2 23 1 4% -15.00 7 30%
3 25 3 12% 3.10 7 28%
4 27 3 11% 7.00 6 22%
5 25 4 16% 8.00 9 36%
6 25 1 4% -22.00 4 16%
7 25 5 20% 7.50 8 32%
8 22 4 18% 12.50 8 36%
9 20 1 5% -3.00 5 25%
10 15 1 7% -12.50 5 33%
11 12 2 17% -3.00 6 50%
12 12 0 0% -12.00 3 25%
13 1 0 0% -1.00 1 100%
14 1 0 0% -1.00 0 0%
Not many races to go on here and not many patterns to find.
So that’s the analysis, but can we make a system out of it? In short, yes!

KEMPTON STALL ANALYSIS SYSTEM
Here is a small system using the above analysis and adding another couple of variables that
has shown a huge profit over the last few years:
Track: Kempton, All Weather Track
Race Class: Class 4, 5, or 6
Race Distance: Exactly 6f
Horse Weight: Between 126lbs (9-0) and 130lbs (9-4)
Placing Last Time Out: 2nd or worse
Stall: Stalls 11 and 12 only
WIN ONLY
Bets Wins WinStrike SP_PL Places PlaceStrike
131 31 23.66% 113.37 57 43.51%
EACH WAY
E/W Qualifiers Wins Placed SP Points E/W Strike
131 31 57 129.05 43.51%
BY YEAR
Period Bets Wins SP Points Strike Rate
2009 32 7 32.75 21.88%
2008 46 10 30.71 21.74%
2007 36 11 44 30.56%
2006 17 3 5.91 17.65%